This research report, developed by UHI Shetland, was commissioned by the Fair Isle Demonstration and Research MPA Executive Steering Group and presents an updated benthic habitat distribution model for the seabed around Fair Isle in line with the objectives of the Fair Isle Demonstration and Research Marine Protected Area (DR MPA) Designation Order.

A 2024 report into the distribution of seabed habitats within the Fair Isle DR MPA identified substantial data deficiency in benthic biotope records. To address this, a benthic survey was conducted in September 2024, utilising hydroacoustic mapping and drop-down video camera drifts. This survey effort expanded biotope records from five to 126, identifying 10 distinct biotopes, two of which are classified as the ‘kelp bed’ Priority Marine Feature (PMF).

Predictive habitat modelling using MaxEnt further refined the understanding of predicted benthic biotope distribution within the Fair Isle DR MPA, confirming its value in filling data gaps and supporting conservation and management efforts. The models demonstrated good predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.89, TSS > 0.66), reinforcing the utilisation of presence-only models for informing marine conservation and management. However, limitations are still present in the data including sparse and historically dependent records. Whilst the models have value in predicting the distribution of benthic biotopes, further ground truthing is needed to confirm this distribution.

Within the Fair Isle DR MPA, 12 of the 28 modelled Shetland biotopes were predicted to be present, covering a diverse range of substrates (e.g. bedrock, sand, mixed sediment etc.) and energy conditions. Circalittoral coarse sediment was predicted to be most extensive biotope present, predicted to cover 50% of the Fair Isle DR MPA. The updated models also refined habitat predictions, revealing changes in predicted biotope distributions, with some previously predicted habitats no longer being predicted while others emerged or an expansion was observed in their previous predicted range. These findings highlight the importance of integrating high-quality local data within
predictive modelling to refine model predicted outputs. The results also emphasise the need for ongoing biotope data collection, particularly in nearshore areas with high habitat complexity, to enhance predictive model accuracy and ground truth model outputs.

Long-term monitoring and adaptive management strategies are critical in responding to ecological changes, particularly in the context of climate change. By continuously updating habitat maps and integrating new data, conservation and management efforts can remain proactive and responsive to potential environmental shifts. Future research should focus on expanding field sampling to validate model predictions and examining the broader impacts of climate change on benthic communities.

This study reinforces the importance of sustained monitoring and the role of predictive modelling in marine conservation and management. The findings provide insights for the adaptive management of the Fair Isle DR MPA, ensuring continued protection and sustainable use of its marine resources.

The survey report is available here: Benthic habitat distribution within the Fair Isle Demonstration and Research Marine Protected Area

This report has been developed by UHI Shetland, as commisioned by the Fair Isle Demonstration and Research MPA Executive Steering Group. This project received financial support by players of the People’s Postcode Lottery through the National Trust for Scotland’s Love our Nature project.